So instead of sparing myself what I’m sure will be another devastating end to a season, I’ll be watching the next week of games. I have determined a formula to help put this new brand of baseball into perspective.

The way I figure (without actually researching each game; too painful), the bullpen gives up two runs for every out recorded. Therefore:

Defensive outs needed when the starting pitcher is removed + 1 = Run lead needed to ensure victory

Meaning, if it’s the top of the seventh inning and no outs, the Mets will need a ten run lead to secure a win. If the starter leaves earlier, like in at the end of the fourth, the Mets will need a sixteen run lead. I will be forwarding this to the Commissioners’ office and petitioning the league to adopt this formula to calculate the new stat MBSV (Mets Bullpen Save)

Kidding aside, this method makes watching this crap less gut wrenching when we cough up a lead. The rationalization that “we weren’t really winning” is about all the comfort I can muster these days.

The roster moves were likely born out of necessity instead of a shift in team philosophy. With Ryan Church’s return uncertain, Moises Alou out for the season, John Maine and Billy Wagner both struggling with injury and no help to be found at the deadline, what else are they going to do? Bring up the young kids, why not?

Although the Mets offense has been failing lately, they should be able to compensate for Church’s extended absence. The most pressing concern is the state of the bullpen which will require a intense off-season overhaul. None of the current arms are capable of closing in Wagner’s place, and the odds of a 23 year old rookie closing in a pennant race aren’t in the Mets’ favor.

But take heart, the Mets don’t figure to be in the pennant race much longer. Of course a quick and early end to the season might prove refreshing than another August/September swoon and slow death of a team that is less than the sum of its parts.

So what the hell, lets all sit back and watch these four prospects who, depending on who you believe are either highly talented or overvalued. The July surge was nice, but likely an anomaly in another high expectation, also-ran Mets season plagued once again by a stagnant offense and poor bullpen performance.

2009 isn’t that far away.